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The UK economy will not return to growth next year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) claims.

Predicting the economy will shrink by 4.3 per cent over 2009, the organisation suggests the global slowdown is approaching its bottom but the effects will reach into the future.

Jorgen Elmeskov, acting head of economics at the OECD, explains: 'The ensuing recovery is likely to be both weak and fragile for some time. And the negative economic and social consequences of the crisis will be long lasting.'

He claims that the recession could easily have been worse and says that government efforts such as tax cuts, economic support and historically-low base interest rates have 'cushioned' the effects of the downturn.

However, Howard Archer, chief UK economist at financial analyst IHS Global Insight, says that the predictions are too pessimistic and suggests modest growth could be seen in 2010.

Earlier this week, the Trades Union Congress claimed that the ongoing recession is similar to the deep downturn experienced in the 80s, rather than the more shallow one in the 90s.

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