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The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) predicts that the UK faces 'slow and fragile' recovery, with growth not expected until the spring of 2010.

In its latest economic forecast, the group notes the first quarter of the year saw the recession deepen more steeply than expected, but claims that further falls in gross domestic product (GDP) will not be as sharp.

The CBI has revised its GDP growth outlook for 2009 from -3.3 per cent to -3.9 per cent to reflect the poor conditions of the first three months of the year.

However, it claims that monetary policy, low inflation, international fiscal support packages and the weaker pound will help slow the decline through 2009 and lead into a 'fragile improvement' of 0.2 per cent growth in the second quarter of 2010.

Richard Lambert, CBI director general, says: 'In these turbulent times it is difficult to build a clear picture of how the economy will perform. The recession is by no means over, but we [will] see a return to very weak growth by spring 2010.'

David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, recently claimed that it is too early to start predicting when recovery will begin, but pointed out that there are signs the pace of decline is beginning to slow.

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