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Global economic slowdown in the money markets

May 27 2008

The hot topic in business at the moment is the widely reported global economic slowdown, meltdown in the money markets and the effect on business in the UK. Over the past fortnight, we asked if you had started to feel the pinch of tighter lending criteria or slower revenue streams, and if there were any measures you’d taken to alleviate this.

A significant number (28 per cent) of you say you experienced lower sales than usual in December and attributed that to the first whispers of a credit crunch reducing consumer spending. While advisers and bankers are telling us that lending for small businesses is unlikely to have been affected by any slowdown, many of you expressed feelings to the contrary. A total of 22 per cent had noticed a difference in the availability of funding for your business, saying that cash had become less readily available.

Of those who said that they had not yet felt the effect of such a slowdown, 18 per cent had begun putting some money aside, wary of a tough 2008. With cash flow a major issue for small firms at the best of times, this seems a prudent move.

SmallBusiness.co.uk spoke to Trevor Williams, chief economist at Lloyds TSB, to get a view on the year ahead and see whether, as 15 per cent of you seem to think, the notion of an impending credit crunch is just a lot of hype.

He believes that ‘the credit crunch has not yet had a major impact on the retail sector. It has hit the balance sheets of those involved in wholesale borrowing but rather than causing a collapse of high street retail, it is likely just to mean a slowdown from consumers'.

He continues: ‘Even if the economy slows to 1.5 per cent growth, the bank could cut interest rates to 4.5 per cent. There is room to manoeuvre so I think we are far from looking at a recession next year.’

Hopefully, this is heartening news for many of you. This year could still mean a certain degree of belt tightening, but there are those who say that a full recession is not likely to hit.

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